Receive future | Juraj MESÍK
"In good times and in bad ...," says the traditional ritual of marriage. Today is the acceptance that "even in bad" limited in Western societies is common for divorce. In the future, however, can not divorce, at least not alive. toluene We can go and try future toluene elsewhere, in another country, but not the future we basically only two options: die or learn to live with it.
Perhaps this is one of the reasons why we think less about the future as we should, or, if we think, so think of it as translated curve between our past and present. As with us for many generations living in long term growth in prosperity leads extension curve where we are - at least intuitively - always wanted to be: in security and prosperity. Their expectation almost as exuberant as newlyweds selectively ignore and deny all warning signs that our future may actually look like otherwise.
The historical experience of the old Herakleites tell us: panta rei. Civilization as individuals have their birth, for growth, maturity, and then fall. However, we are tempted to flatter: this time it's different for us it can not happen.
World yesterday, an excellent book great European humanist toluene Stefan Zweig, suggestive captures the atmosphere of anticipation residents imperial Vienna in the first decade of the 20th century. After half a century of peace and prosperity steadily growing vast majority of Viennese - and other Europeans because they were not too different - around 1910 had no idea that in a few short years, millions will wear away the slaughterhouse World War and afterwards the ancient Danube monarchy has just closed chapter of history .
Not so only because, in 1910, the world suffered from a lack of solid evidence which would analyst at the threshold of the 20th century made it impossible to predict where development is heading. The main reason was elsewhere: Dobové intellectuals did not want to talk about warning symptoms toluene and the public did not want to hear about them.
How funny stated Niels Bohr: "Anticipating is very difficult, toluene especially the future." The behavior of human society is a complex story with many variables and unknowns, solving equations toluene of the future often produces results tinged subjective desires. Human knowledge, however, over the past decade nevertheless significant progress and today it can be argued - also a try - the basic physical parameters of our future are already toluene sufficiently clearly predetermined and the basic outlines of our future today we can with high probability to predict on the basis of input parameters and natural laws. At least in the near term decades, toluene the horizon is directly relevant to most contemporaries.
It therefore appears that the main problem in our relationship to the future does not lie in the fact that it can not predict at least approximately. Our main problem is the first in our marriage with the notion of "good future". toluene What say the key data is to lead the world of tomorrow, which will make life much harder and in view of our present lifestyle and values toluene significantly worse. All right already. How much worse will depend largely on the adaptations and maladaptácií the trends that are now manifest, but still hanging in limbo general ignorance and denial. The framework is given, but in the details - in a very important detail - our future will depend on (a) the ability of people to take the future. Accept it in good, and bad.
The euphoria November 1989 I - we, together with many others - said: "This is a historic event, toluene what experiences Only a few generations: but you got lucky that I experienced it!" Now I know what lies ahead is far deeper and more fundamental change in society than the one we lived in the 89-th: just to be less euphoric. What is before us arises toluene out of the mists unknown are the changes that will be depressing for many, can be tragic.
quotes Joseph A. Tainter Ortega y Gasset in his classic work Collapses toluene complex societies. toluene No wonder that even a cautious hint of the possibility that our rich capabilities and overflowing company could expect a similar fate fate of the Roman Empire, to induce human reaction sequence similar to those described the Swiss-American psychiatrist Elisabeth Kuebler-Ross in another classic book of the last century, in his work about death and dying. In its observations responding to the report on the imminent toluene death of yourself or a loved one in five phases. The first is denial, anger second, followed by bargaining, depression, and - as it overcomes one - acceptance. Acceptance of a new, radically altered the future.
Witnessing such a cascade of reactions that I have been in numerous lectures and discussions on the prospects of our civilization, and I suspect that even some readers of this essay will react similarly. toluene Let me stress that I am not asking you to have anything from spoken, toluene he believed. Conversely, even to his students still repeat: Do not believe anything of what you say! Selling beliefs and certainties prenechajme other: this is an appeal to critical thinking. What I expect is verification
"In good times and in bad ...," says the traditional ritual of marriage. Today is the acceptance that "even in bad" limited in Western societies is common for divorce. In the future, however, can not divorce, at least not alive. toluene We can go and try future toluene elsewhere, in another country, but not the future we basically only two options: die or learn to live with it.
Perhaps this is one of the reasons why we think less about the future as we should, or, if we think, so think of it as translated curve between our past and present. As with us for many generations living in long term growth in prosperity leads extension curve where we are - at least intuitively - always wanted to be: in security and prosperity. Their expectation almost as exuberant as newlyweds selectively ignore and deny all warning signs that our future may actually look like otherwise.
The historical experience of the old Herakleites tell us: panta rei. Civilization as individuals have their birth, for growth, maturity, and then fall. However, we are tempted to flatter: this time it's different for us it can not happen.
World yesterday, an excellent book great European humanist toluene Stefan Zweig, suggestive captures the atmosphere of anticipation residents imperial Vienna in the first decade of the 20th century. After half a century of peace and prosperity steadily growing vast majority of Viennese - and other Europeans because they were not too different - around 1910 had no idea that in a few short years, millions will wear away the slaughterhouse World War and afterwards the ancient Danube monarchy has just closed chapter of history .
Not so only because, in 1910, the world suffered from a lack of solid evidence which would analyst at the threshold of the 20th century made it impossible to predict where development is heading. The main reason was elsewhere: Dobové intellectuals did not want to talk about warning symptoms toluene and the public did not want to hear about them.
How funny stated Niels Bohr: "Anticipating is very difficult, toluene especially the future." The behavior of human society is a complex story with many variables and unknowns, solving equations toluene of the future often produces results tinged subjective desires. Human knowledge, however, over the past decade nevertheless significant progress and today it can be argued - also a try - the basic physical parameters of our future are already toluene sufficiently clearly predetermined and the basic outlines of our future today we can with high probability to predict on the basis of input parameters and natural laws. At least in the near term decades, toluene the horizon is directly relevant to most contemporaries.
It therefore appears that the main problem in our relationship to the future does not lie in the fact that it can not predict at least approximately. Our main problem is the first in our marriage with the notion of "good future". toluene What say the key data is to lead the world of tomorrow, which will make life much harder and in view of our present lifestyle and values toluene significantly worse. All right already. How much worse will depend largely on the adaptations and maladaptácií the trends that are now manifest, but still hanging in limbo general ignorance and denial. The framework is given, but in the details - in a very important detail - our future will depend on (a) the ability of people to take the future. Accept it in good, and bad.
The euphoria November 1989 I - we, together with many others - said: "This is a historic event, toluene what experiences Only a few generations: but you got lucky that I experienced it!" Now I know what lies ahead is far deeper and more fundamental change in society than the one we lived in the 89-th: just to be less euphoric. What is before us arises toluene out of the mists unknown are the changes that will be depressing for many, can be tragic.
quotes Joseph A. Tainter Ortega y Gasset in his classic work Collapses toluene complex societies. toluene No wonder that even a cautious hint of the possibility that our rich capabilities and overflowing company could expect a similar fate fate of the Roman Empire, to induce human reaction sequence similar to those described the Swiss-American psychiatrist Elisabeth Kuebler-Ross in another classic book of the last century, in his work about death and dying. In its observations responding to the report on the imminent toluene death of yourself or a loved one in five phases. The first is denial, anger second, followed by bargaining, depression, and - as it overcomes one - acceptance. Acceptance of a new, radically altered the future.
Witnessing such a cascade of reactions that I have been in numerous lectures and discussions on the prospects of our civilization, and I suspect that even some readers of this essay will react similarly. toluene Let me stress that I am not asking you to have anything from spoken, toluene he believed. Conversely, even to his students still repeat: Do not believe anything of what you say! Selling beliefs and certainties prenechajme other: this is an appeal to critical thinking. What I expect is verification
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